Strategic Decision-Making in an Algo World
Apply the scientific method to strategic decisions. Build theories, test hypotheses, and increase the probability of better outcomes under uncertainty.
Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
Leaders face decisions with no historical precedent. We apply the scientific method—thinking causally and probabilistically instead of in absolute terms.
No Historical Precedent
Leaders face strategic decisions for which there is no past data to guide them.
Inadequate Frameworks
Existing frameworks focus on data-driven decisions but lack microfoundations for high-impact choices.
No Structured Thinking
Without historical foundations, leaders lack systems for scientific first-principle reasoning.
Limited Exploration
Traditional tools don't accommodate different lenses, counterfactuals, or causal thinking.
Frame
Clarify the decision space by effectively framing strategic problems.
Theorize
Think causally and probabilistically — build causal theories of value.
Explore
Explore counterfactuals and alternative strategic paths.
Experiment
Test beliefs through experimentation to validate theories.
Decide
Systematically quantify intuition and make informed decisions.
The Science Behind Our Work
31+ papers in pipeline, 9 published in top management journals.
2024
Theory-driven strategic management decisions
Strategic decisions should be grounded in explicit theories that can be tested through experimentation—not intuition or past data alone.
2024
A scientific approach to entrepreneurial decision‐making: Large‐scale replication and extension
Entrepreneurs trained in scientific approaches make fewer pivots but achieve higher performance—methodic doubt dominates efficient search.
2025
Bayesian Entrepreneurship
Entrepreneurs form heterogeneous priors about opportunities and update beliefs through carefully designed experiments—the definitive framework.
Understand the Theory-Based Approach
Our researchers explain the framework in these presentations.
Technologies for Decision-Making
AI platforms and assessments built on decades of management science research.