Beyond Black Boxes: Designing and Testing Agentic AI Systems for Strategy

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Kazemi, S., & Pandey, A.

Strategy Science · 2026

Experimental evidence showing that AI augmentation in strategic decision-making can decouple confidence from quality—managers become more confident but not necessarily better.

Bayesian Entrepreneurship

Agrawal, A., Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Gans, J.S., Scott, E.L., & Stern, S. (Eds.)

MIT Press · 2025

The definitive framework for applying Bayesian reasoning to entrepreneurial decisions, synthesizing research on theory-based approaches to strategy under uncertainty.

Does a theory-of-value add value? Evidence from a randomized control trial with Tanzanian entrepreneurs

Agarwal, R., Bacco, F., Camuffo, A., Coali, A., Gambardella, A., Msangi, H., Sonka, S.T., Temu, A., Waized, B., & Wormald, A.

Organization Science · 2025

A randomized controlled trial examining whether entrepreneurs who develop explicit theories of value creation outperform those who don't, with evidence from Tanzania.

Design- and theory-based approaches to strategic decisions

Gambardella, A., & Messinese, D.

Organization Science · 2025

Contrasts design thinking with theory-based approaches to strategic decision-making, identifying when each approach is most effective.

A theory-based view of path dependency

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Kazemi, S.

Economics of Innovation and New Technology · 2025

Develops a theory-based perspective on how early strategic choices constrain and enable future options through the lens of evolving managerial theories.

Internal initial conditions and path dependence: An experimental and AI-synthetic study of theories and awareness of unknown events

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Kazemi, S.

Industrial and Corporate Change · 2025

Investigates how initial conditions and awareness of unknowns affect path-dependent strategic evolution, using experimental and AI-generated synthetic data.

A scientific approach to entrepreneurial decision‐making: Large‐scale replication and extension

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., Messinese, D., Novelli, E., Paolucci, E., & Spina, C.

Strategic Management Journal · 2024

Large-scale replication of the scientific approach to entrepreneurship, extending findings across multiple contexts and populations.

Theory-driven strategic management decisions

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Pignataro, A.

Strategy Science · 2024

The foundational paper establishing an analytic, normative framework for theory-based strategic decision-making—how managers should formulate, test, and update strategic theories.

3rd highest cited paper in the TBV Special Issue

Scientific decision-making, project selection and longer-term outcomes

Coali, A., Gambardella, A., & Novelli, E.

Research Policy · 2024

Examines how scientific approaches to decision-making affect project selection and long-term innovation outcomes.

Framing Strategic Decisions in the Digital World

Camuffo, A., Gambardella, A., & Pignataro, A.

Strategic Management Review · 2023

Explores how digitalization changes the nature of strategic framing and the role of theory-based approaches in navigating digital complexity.

A Scientific Approach to Entrepreneurial Decision Making: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial

Camuffo, A., Cordova, A., Gambardella, A., & Spina, C.

Management Science · 2020

The original RCT showing that entrepreneurs trained to behave like scientists—formulating hypotheses, designing experiments, and rigorously testing them—make better decisions and perform better.